revenue growth
—
FY 2026
official guidance
VERISURE PLC
Last · Stockholm€9.146+0.12 (+1.33%)stale · yahoo · 97h ago
Limited price history since listing (2026-08-27 → 2026-09-04).
Market cap€9.5B1.03B sh
P/E · TTM—fwd 13.6 · eps —
Beta—vs S&P 500
Div yield—annual · TTM
52w range
€8.982€9.192
Volume561.2Ksession
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
BuyHoldSell
Strong cash conversion and margin execution outweigh near-term installation and macro concerns.
Buy: Verisure delivered a strong Q2 with ARR up 11.9% to €3.62bn, adjusted EBIT up 13.9% to €269m with a 26.3% margin, and €56m of free cash flow.
The cash inflection, 2.7x leverage, refinancing benefits and first €0.10 dividend support the rerating case, although installations grew only 0.6% and analysts challenged the achievability of the ~10% ARR growth outlook in a softer consumer environment.
Themes
- Arr Growth
- Cash Inflection
- Margin Expansion
- Shareholder Returns
- Spain Rebrand
- Memory Costs
Near term
Q3 trading and installation volumes are the key read-through after management said the consumer backdrop has neither materially improved nor worsened.
The Spain rebrand is expected to carry roughly €10m of media investment in Q3, potentially limiting sequential margin progression.
Refinancing should reduce cash finance costs in Q3 and again in Q4; leverage and cash generation will determine the pace of further shareholder returns.
Memory inflation, fuel costs and inventory normalization could affect near-term cash and customer acquisition economics.
Longer term
Portfolio economics remain attractive: €35.71 monthly EBITDA per customer, 7.5% attrition, approximately 20% unlevered customer IRR over 15 years, and a long-term adjusted EBIT margin ambition of 30%.
The main thesis risk is whether Verisure can sustain roughly 10% ARR growth if installation growth remains low; management is relying on pricing, innovation, lower attrition and partnerships rather than a macro recovery.
AI-enabled monitoring, proprietary data and vertically integrated technology may strengthen the service moat, but management did not quantify the incremental retention, pricing or cost benefits sufficiently to fully underwrite the claim.
Regionalized assembly through Brazil and the fit-for-growth program could reduce inventory, hardware and support costs over time.
Red flags
Q2 installations rose just 0.6% despite a 9.4% portfolio increase, and Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and BofA analysts explicitly questioned the path to approximately 10% ARR growth.
Management would not provide full-year free-cash-flow guidance and deferred more specific year-end EBIT commentary until Q3.
Inventory stood at approximately €330m, or seven months of supply, partly reflecting elevated global memory demand and pricing.
CPA rose 6.7% excluding the rebrand, with lower fixed-cost absorption accounting for roughly three percentage points of growth; further volume weakness could pressure acquisition returns.
Management estimates €10m-€15m of annualized memory-cost pressure, expected to have greater impact in 2027, while also flagging €5m-€10m of 2026 fuel-cost risk.
Forward outlook
revenue growth
10 pct
FY 2026
official guidance
operating margin
—
FY 2026
official guidance
revenue growth
10 pct
FY 2026
management framework
operating margin
30 pct
FY 2030
management target
Recommendation history
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
Upcoming earnings
4:30 PM UTC+1
Period
Sep 2026
Est. EPS
$0.15
Est. revenue
1.0B
Earnings transcripts
Documents
FormReporting forFiledFlags