LUMO KODIT OYJ

Recommendation history

• Q4 2025HoldHold: operating momentum improved materially, with Q4 occupancy at 96.3%, like-for-like rental income up 2.6%, and Q4 FFO up EUR0.3m despite full-year FFO falling EUR7.3m. The EUR900m acquisition of 4,761 apartments supports 2026 revenue guidance of EUR484-497m and has a stated 4.9% stabilized yield, but the low acquired occupancy, higher refinancing costs, and EUR11.86 share issuance leave too much execution and dilution risk for a clean buy.
• Q3 2025HoldHold: operational momentum improved, with occupancy rising to 96.1% in Q3 and like-for-like rental income growth reaching 1.1%, but the earnings recovery is not yet translating into cash flow. Q3 revenue increased only EUR 0.4 million year over year, while year-to-date FFO fell EUR 7.7 million as financing costs rose EUR 8.6 million; management also acknowledged that new-tenant rents were 3–5% lower in some cases and that Helsinki/Vantaa remain oversupplied.
• Q1 2025HoldHold: Kojamo’s operational recovery is encouraging, with March occupancy rising to 93.5% and Q1 net rental income up 3.7%, but higher financing costs drove FFO down and the company left 2025 guidance unchanged at 1–4% top-line growth and EUR 135–145 million FFO. The balance sheet is defensible—44% LTV, EUR 317 million cash and financial assets, and 2025–26 maturities covered—but Moody’s negative outlook, below-peer occupancy and ongoing rent incentives keep this from being a clean buy.
• Q4 2024HoldHold: Kojamo delivered only 2.3% revenue growth and 0.1% net rental-income growth in 2024, while FFO fell as financial expenses increased by EUR32.5 million. 2025 guidance is for 1–4% revenue growth and EUR135–145 million FFO, with the midpoint relying mainly on occupancy recovery rather than rent increases or new completions; the balance sheet is solid, but occupancy remains weak and the recovery is not yet proven.
• Q3 2024HoldHold: Kojamo delivered 3.1% growth in total revenue and net rental income, but FFO declined as financing and maintenance costs rose; like-for-like rental growth was -0.4% and occupancy remains below satisfactory levels. Management maintained 2024 top-line growth guidance of 2–4%, while the key upside is a gradual supply correction and the key risk is that incentives, weak occupancy and elevated financing costs persist.
• Q1 2024HoldHold: Kojamo delivered modest operating growth, with Q1 net rental income up 1.9% to EUR 60.6 million, but FFO fell to EUR 25.5 million as financial expenses rose EUR 6.3 million and maintenance costs increased EUR 4.3 million. Management guides to 4–7% 2024 top-line growth and EUR 152–164 million FFO, supported by sharply lower new supply and a strong liquidity position, but the recovery remains dependent on occupancy improving in H2 and interest costs easing.
• Q4 2023HoldHold: Kojamo delivered a solid 2023 operationally, with revenue up 7%, like-for-like growth of 1.9%, occupancy at 93% and FFO of EUR167.2m, but 2024 guidance implies FFO of only EUR154–166m. The long-term supply-demand setup is improving and leverage is manageable at 44.6% LTV, yet the investment case remains constrained by a EUR295m 2023 valuation decline, refinancing needs and limited transparency on how much of the rental-growth outlook comes from rents versus occupancy.