revenue
35000 $million
FY 2024
official guidance
GEVORKYAN,
Last · PragueCZK 187.000.00 (0.00%)stale · yahoo · 188h ago
Market capCZK 3.1B16.7M sh
P/E · TTM36.6fwd — · eps 5.11
Beta0.26vs S&P 500
Div yield—annual · TTM
52w range
CZK 176.00CZK 248.00
Volume1.1Ksession
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
BuyHoldSell
Raised guidance, strong backlog visibility and disciplined capital allocation outweigh execution and cycle risks.
Buy: GE Vernova raised its 2025 outlook to $36-$37 billion of revenue, high-single-digit adjusted EBITDA margin and $2-$2.5 billion of free cash flow, while targeting $45 billion of revenue and 14% EBITDA margins by 2028. The bull case is unusually strong Gas and Electrification demand—9 GW of fixed-price Gas reservations, $118 billion backlog and $6 billion of buybacks—but Wind remains weak and the longer-term case depends on converting backlog, pricing and lean productivity without overbuilding capacity.
Themes
- Gas Power
- Electrification
- Transformers Switchgear
- Offshore Wind
- Lean Productivity
- Capital Allocation
Near term
January results should confirm 2024 revenue near $35 billion, 5.5%-6% EBITDA margin and approximately $1.7 billion of free cash flow.
Conversion of the 9 GW of Gas slot reservations into firm orders during 2025 is a key catalyst; permits and EPC contracts remain outstanding.
Gas pricing and backlog-margin disclosure will show whether the reservation agreements are meaningfully accretive versus the existing backlog.
Electrification capacity execution and continued margin improvement are important, but management is deliberately adding capacity sequentially rather than chasing demand.
Offshore Wind installation progress at Vineyard Wind and Dogger Bank will determine whether 2025 losses improve as guided.
Longer term
The company targets at least $14 billion of cumulative free cash flow from 2025-2028 after $9 billion of R&D and CapEx, with at least one-third returned to shareholders.
Gas production is planned to rise from 55 turbines to 80 by 2027, while services benefit from a $56 billion Gas backlog and higher outage productivity.
Electrification has double-digit revenue growth embedded in the framework, with equipment backlog tripling since 2022 to $19 billion and transformer/switchgear capacity expected to double over four years.
Lean productivity is a credible upside source: Live Outage cycle-time improvement reached 30%, and management has mapped $600 million of annual G&A savings by 2028.
Competitive and cyclicality risk remains meaningful: management itself warned against triggering a two-to-three-year Gas capacity spike followed by a downturn, while analysts highlighted possible transformer and switchgear overcapacity.
Wind is not carrying the growth thesis: Onshore Wind is modeled for limited to no growth through 2028, while Offshore Wind is assumed to run off its equipment backlog.
Red flags
The 9 GW Gas reservations are not yet orders; customers still need air permits, EPC contracts and completed sites, and some hyperscaler-related customers have limited prior power-generation experience.
Tariffs and supply-chain exposure are not contractually protected in most cases; management estimates China, Mexico and Canada represent about 5% of total direct spend.
Electrification is already selling slots into 2029, but management acknowledged the industry has announced substantial capacity additions and that the company is not sold out at that horizon.
Offshore Wind suffered a material blade quality escape, causing a line stoppage, reinspection, delayed installations and additional charges; the 2025 business is still expected to be loss-making.
The 14% 2028 margin framework includes current backlog economics and the full $600 million G&A roadmap, but much of the incremental lean and variable-cost productivity is upside rather than committed guidance.
Wind demand may face a softer near-term trajectory after the U.S. election, and management gave no meaningful Onshore Wind inflection through 2028.
Forward outlook
ebitda
5.5–6 pct
FY 2024
official guidance
revenue
36000–37000 $million
FY 2025
official guidance
ebitda
—
FY 2025
official guidance
revenue
45000 $million
FY 2028
management framework
ebitda
14 pct
FY 2028
management framework
ebitda
—
FY 2028
management framework
ebitda
10 pct
FY 2028
management framework
Recommendation history
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
Earnings transcripts
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