ebitda
1.04–1.12 $billion
FY 2027
official guidance
MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED
Last · ASXA$4.27+0.05 (+1.18%)close · yahoo · 51h ago
Market capA$11.3B2.65B sh
P/E · TTM107fwd 40.5 · eps 0.04
Beta0.46vs S&P 500
Div yield4.30%annual · TTM
52w range
A$4.20A$5.30
Volume15.5Ksession
| Revenue | A$43.2M |
|---|
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
BuyHoldSell
Strong strategic position, but near-term earnings are normalized and leverage is rising.
Hold: FY26 EBITDAF rebounded to $1.05 billion and the dividend rose 7.1% to 22.5 cents per share, but FY27 guidance of $1.04-$1.12 billion implies little earnings growth from a hydrology-assisted peak. The long-term renewable and storage platform is improving, yet net debt is expected to peak just above 3x EBITDAF as capital spending accelerates.
Themes
- Fy27 Guidance
- Hydro Storage
- Renewable Capex
- Battery Returns
- Retail Margins
- Leverage
Near term
FY27 EBITDAF guidance of $1.04-$1.12 billion depends on normal hydrology, while the year began with unusually strong lake levels and inflows.
Ruakaka solar completion, Kraken migration by interims, and the December Mt Munro investment decision are the clearest execution catalysts.
Lower wholesale prices should help customers, but regulated lines charges will limit household bill relief and retail margin normalization remains unproven.
Longer term
The combination of more than 12,000GWh of South Island hydro, North Island customers, added Pukaki storage, and the Ruakaka battery strengthens Meridian's system flexibility and dry-year resilience.
Customer growth toward 500,000 and then 600,000 before 2030 can absorb new generation, but the company still needs to secure additional demand or customer arrangements before committing to some solar projects.
Management expects the renewable build to push net debt above 3x EBITDAF around FY29-FY30 before returning below 3x by FY31.
Red flags
FY26 benefited from 122% annual inflows, unusually favorable timing, and reduced derivative and demand-response costs; the earnings rebound is not a clean recurring baseline.
Battery arbitrage and reserve revenue were below business-case expectations, despite better-than-expected portfolio pricing and HVDC-transfer benefits.
Management cited contractor injury statistics, unresolved policy uncertainty, and a customer migration that still has a small number of issues.
The dividend payout is closer to 100% on a normalized tax-expense basis, leaving less cash-flow flexibility during the planned capex ramp.
Forward outlook
Recommendation history
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
Earnings transcripts
- Issuer IR
Annual Results Announcement Transcript (PDF)
MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED
- Issuer IR
Annual Results Announcement Transcript (PDF)
MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED
- Issuer IR
Annual Results Announcement Transcript (PDF)
MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED
- Issuer IR
Annual Results Announcement Transcript (PDF)
MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED
- Issuer IR
Annual Results Announcement Transcript (PDF)
MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED
- Issuer IR
Annual Results Announcement Transcript (PDF)
MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED
Documents
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